Thursday, July 12, 2012

Steve Nash Running the Show in LA?!

Steve Nash is hands down the player I most appreciate on the NBA. His hard-working attitude and professionalism makes him a perfect role model for any player entering the league. Not only he is a leader, as he has spent his whole career making his team mates become better players (allowing them to seek multimillionaire contracts!) with his unselfishness, a very rare characteristic nowadays on the NBA, especially when we talk about a 2-time MVP award winner.  

This article won't question the impact that Nash will have on the Lakers offense. The goal of this article is trying to understand what adjustments the Lakers will have to make offensively, as whatever happens Nash will definitely help the team's offense. 

The biggest issue seems to be how Nash will co-exist with Kobe, as both players "need" to have the ball on their hands in order to be effective. I have to say that I don't agree with this idea. First of all, Kobe has always that label around him, but it's not hard to understand why. After all, throughout his whole career, Kobe has played with Derek Fisher, an old Ron Harper, Brian Shaw, Chucky Atkins, Smush Parker and Ramon Sessions in the backcourt. Also some people tend to forget that Steve Nash is simply one of the greatest shooters of all time. Very few players shot during a season over 50% from the field, 40% behind the line and 90% from the free throw line and I only remember two players who have similar career numbers: one of them had 47.1% FG, 39.5% 3pts and 88.8% FT, while the other had 49.6% FG, 37.6% 3pts and 88.6% FT! These two players are respectively... Reggie Miller and Larry Bird! So, it's easy to see that Nash has an incredible ability to shoot the ball and with his shooting ability, Nash can easily adapt to a spot up shooting position, while Kobe dominates the ball in the team's offensive plays.

Of course, Steve Nash has always been a synonym of pick and roll plays throughout his career. In the last two seasons, the Suns didn't have the same talent that the first rosters of the Nash era had, but still according to my synergy numbers, Phoenix was ranked #2 in pick and roll - roll man plays in both seasons, while they finished #9 and #8 last season in pick and roll - ball handler plays! However, the Lakers' system has been completely different from the Suns. In the last two season in the Phil Jackson system, the Lakers ran just 7% and 2% of their sets in P&R ball handler and roll man plays, while with coach Mike Brown, they used them a bit more with 8.6% and 3.5% respectively. Nevertheless, these are numbers very far from the Suns with Nash, who ran more than the double amount of pick and roll plays (about 14% and 7.5%) than the Lakers. The main problem with the Lakers was that they were never efficient in those kind of plays, as they even ended last season by being the 5th worst team in the league in P&R roll man plays with just 0.85 Points Per Possession (PPP)! 

Note that with Ramon Sessions joining the team mid-season, the Lakers improved significantly in the pick and rolls, as they went from 8.6% to 9.31% in P&R Ball Handler plays and from 3.5% to 4.4% in P&R Roll Man, while being more efficient from 0.81 PPP to 0.86 PPP and 0.85 PPP to 1.01 PPP respectively. However, we have to take in account that this was a small sample and especially their opponents weren't ready to play against this "new look" from the Lakers. With Sessions playing more than 25 minutes, the Lakers who were struggling offensively for most of the season, suddenly scored more than 100 points in 8 of the first 12 games of the Sessions era. But once teams figured out Sessions, he heavily struggled in the postseason, especially as it was really hard for him having to guard Ty Lawson and later Russell Westbrook and still have something left in the tank on the other side of the floor. If the Lakers were able to improve on offense last season just with some minor tweaks on offense, then with Nash, they have the potential to improve significantly on offense.  

Also let's not forget that the NBA had a lockout last season and teams didn't have their typical training camps. The Lakers had a new head coach who put their effort on defense and just later on offense, there was also the emergence of Andrew Bynum and suddenly, Pau Gasol was completely lost on the field. It was bizarre to watch him launching a three point! On his first 4 seasons as a Lakers, Gasol attempted a total of 11 3pts shots in 255 games and last season, in just 65 games, Gasol attempted 27 three pointers! At least, he hit 26% of those shots and that's why Bynum was so jealous that he wanted to shoot treys as well until Mike Brown had enough and benched him! Gasol also attempted 4.1 field goals per game from 16-23 feet and he still hit 43% of those shots. We are talking about one of the best low post players in the league who had 0.95 PPP in post up plays last season, the #22 best mark in the league. Gasol has a rare ability in anticipating plays that makes him one of the best big men in passing the ball, so he will take advantage from Nash's pick and rolls, while the pick and pop will be devastating with these two players. Gasol has career numbers of 43.4% and 43% FG from 10-15 and 16-23 feet, so he won't have any problems in adjusting and benefit from playing alongside Nash. 

The biggest adjustment will have to be done by Bynum. Last season, 55% of Bynum's plays were post up plays and he had a decent mark of 0.89 PPP. He also had 16% of those plays in cuts for a great 1.53 PPP mark (#5 in the league), but just 3.4% of his plays were P&R Roll Man plays. Bynum has a tendency to hold on the ball and then use his body to gain some inside position over his opponent. He still has troubles in recognizing double teams and pass the ball to an open team mate, as his 1.4 assists per game show. He also isn't a good runner, so Nash might need to hold on the ball a bit more in the transition plays if he wants to involve Bynum in them. It will be this ability or not of adjusting by Bynum that will define the offensive future of this team, who can definitely improve from good to great.

In order for this team to become a powerhouse in the West once again, they still need to fill better their bench. I have some concerns on their defense due to their lack of speed and explosiveness, while Mike Brown will have to able to implement the right offensive gameplan for this team. I'll give the benefit of the doubt on him for last season due to the special circumstances that happened that gave the team very little time to practice, but the truth is that Mike Brown has always been known for being a defensive minded coach. Anyway, very few people could image that a trade that was so criticized by their fans with Odom joining the Mavs could eventually become the key for this "new" Lakers. Let's see if they are able to use the two-time MVP Nash in order to make them great again.

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